Investing Fact Check: No One Can Predict the Future
Not the common investor. Not your financial planner. Not even the “big wig” finance-savvy gurus.
I get it. It’s alluring to think you might have a competitive edge. The seductive power of huge yields in a short amount of time is almost magnetic. And it’s definitely a good marketing point for investment advisors who claim they can “beat the market”. But the truth is, market timing and stock picking just don’t work.
Of course, people score big sometimes. They might even get lucky a few years in a row. But, in a way, this is just dangerous. Like a gambler with a string of good hands, these people may begin to think they’re invincible, play hard for another year, and—eventually—return home with empty hands in their pockets and a droopy tail between their legs.
The results are in.
In fact, they’ve been in for a long time: When it comes to investing, you are your own worst enemy. Investor behavior consistently causes people to under perform over the long haul.
In Dalbar’s 22nd Annual Analysis of Investor Behavior, they discovered that the average investor under performed the S&P 500 by 3.66% in 2015. According to Dalbar, “while the broader market made incremental gains of 1.38%, the average equity investor suffered a more-than-incremental loss of -2.28%”. This type of data is consistent over the last 20 to 30 years. Over the last 20 years, the S&P 500 has outperformed the investor by 3.52%.
And with the “expert” investment managers, the results still aren’t that hot. In 2014, 86% of them failed to beat the market.
So why is this happening?
Maybe it has something to do with the fact that the average equity fund retention rate of 2015 was 4.10 years. This means that every 4.10 years the average investor changed his mutual fund to chase the hot returns of another investment option, ultimately trying to beat the market, ultimately believing they (or a financial guru) could predict the future. If you just jumped down to this point, see the above statistics. It didn’t work.
So why do investors still believe it?
If it doesn’t work, then why do people still do it? There are many reasons why. Perhaps it is just lack of research and reflection. Or perhaps it is because people are looking at their stocks in a vacuum, thinking that their 6% return isn’t bad even though the S&P performed at 8%.
But I think the biggest reason is that they don’t look at the big picture. They see the ads that say “if you would’ve picked this stock last month, you would be up 40%” or “Here at (insert investing company name here), we’ve beat the market 3 years in a row”. They see the Warren Buffets of the world and forget that these are just isolated cases. When you zoom out and see the million other people who tried to beat the markets and failed, the truth comes into focus.
So—in the end—you can choose to do what many investors are doing.
Or you can choose the time-tested, statistically verified way: diversify your portfolio and wait…without touching it. If you’re retiring soon, I recommend this strategy. You don’t have time for risky moves. You don’t have time to make up for heavy losses.
Instead, you need an investment strategy that safeguards your portfolio from crippling losses, while allowing it to grow—slowly but surely—well into your retirement. It’s not flashy. It won’t get you on the cover of Money Magazine. But unlike trying to predict the future—
Want a Certified Financial Planner to analyze your portfolio at no cost to you? Call Seniormark at 937-492-8800 for a free consultation.